June 13, 2016

Brexit in 10 Days?

A new poll from the Bruges Group gives the Leave camp a 19 point lead over Remain. According to the poll, 52% of respondents supported a Brexit, while only 33% wished to remain in the EU and 15% were undecided. A decisive victory for Leave is within grasp; even if all of the undecided Britons voted to Remain (an unlikely outcome), Leave would still come out ahead. Adding to the confusion, UK bookmakers are pricing in a substantially lower risk of a Brexit; for instance, bookmakers Ladbrokes and Coral are pricing in a 36% chance of a Brexit. Given the …

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