Central Bank

Smart Money Insights: Weekly Brief Mar 14

The widespread reversal of losses through mid-February continued over the past week. The S&P 500 rose 3% and is up over 10% from the trough. Oil closed above $38 per barrel, up over one third from the lows and close to flat YTD. Emerging market stocks were up 9% on the week and are now up 3% this year. The most important, and least understood, event last week was the market’s reaction to the ECB’s significant expansion of quantitative easing. In addition, MLP investors got some bad news and many investors are starting to focus on the severity of Italy’s …

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Smart Money Insights: Weekly Brief Mar 7

It’s been an interesting few weeks, to say the least. Equities have recovered, but gains have been very uneven. Some macroeconomic fears have abated, or at least moved off the front page. In this weekly update, we check in on some of the major themes over the past several weeks, such as the likelihood of a US recession, the next move in central bank policy, whether China will devalue, the likelihood that oil has bottomed, or whether there will be contagion from energy sector high yield bonds. Is the US heading into recession? (update from Feb 22) In the first …

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Smart Money Insights: Weekly Brief Feb 22

Is the US heading into recession? Does the market decline in January and early February signal that the US is heading into recession? Most hedge funds think not. In the face of surprisingly large drawdowns, most hedge funds appear to be sticking to their guns or even adding to positions in US equities. You don’t see this when there’s widespread concern about the overall economy. Bottoms-up fundamental managers don’t appear to be overly concerned about the US economy, in part because they have concentrated their investments in sectors that have been doing reasonably well (e.g. consumer spending, technology). A few …

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