Value Investment

Should you ignore financial academic research?

Excerpted text from Andrew Beer’s article in Investment Europe today: Marketers like nothing more than to pitch a product “grounded in decades of academic research.”  The implication is that objective academics have dispassionately studied market phenomena to uncover canonical truths.  In theory, this makes the investment decision easy – think “value outperforms growth” or, more recently, “quality stocks outperform.” Don’t be fooled.  Academic papers are subject to five very serious limitations: 1.    Publishing Bias 2.    The Big Splash Phenomenon 3.    The Assumptions Are Everything 4.    The World Changes – A Lot 5.    Business and Academia Overlap Click here to read …

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Smart Money Insights: Weekly Brief May 31

Welcome back after the holiday weekend. Last week we revisited some recent dire predictions that have faded from the headlines. This week, we’ll focus on a single issue — value vs growth stocks – since this is having a big impact on active investors of all stripes. The catalyst is that value-focused ETFs have had inflows of $5.5 billion this year while growth ETFs have seen outflows – causing some to forecast a reversal of the growth-chasing trend over the past several years. Key points follow below. Value Has Performed Terribly vs. Growth There’s a good article today in Bloomberg …

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Smart Money Insights: Weekly Brief Mar 21

If March ended today, the first quarter of 2016 would look like a “yawner”: the S&P 500 index rose modestly, emerging markets and commodities bounced nicely after a terrible 2015, some of last year’s gains on the dollar reversed (which eases pressure on corporate profits), and bonds performed nicely in a world of slowing economic growth and aggressive monetary easing. Completely absent from this narrative is the violent churn beneath the surface and the damage to many investment portfolios. In that context, it’s worth revisiting some of the drivers of market volatility this year. Is the US heading into recession? …

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Why Apple is NOT a Top Ten Holding of 93% of Hedge Funds

To infinity and beyond Buzz Lightyear   A recent report by Goldman Sachs describes Apple (AAPL) as a “Very Important Position” (top ten holding) for 47 hedge funds. Overlooked is that fact that it’s not a significant position for 93% of the hedge funds in the survey and represents only a 1-2% overall allocation, less than its weighting in the S&P 500. Further, three years ago it was in fact a top ten holding of 109 hedge funds, so more than half decided to cut back. What happened? Perhaps the real question is, “how cheap is AAPL today?” Carl Icahn, …

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Is Warren Buffett a Value Investor?

  The best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return. Warren Buffett The quote above is a far cry from value investing as described in such canonical works as Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis (1934). Those works tended to focus on asset rich companies – especially firms with easy to value assets like cash and working capital. The idea was to buy shares at a significant discount to intrinsic value. A lousy company with easy-to-value assets of $100 per share might still be a …

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Why Don’t Value Investors Always Buy the Dips?

In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it’s a weighing machine. For fun, let’s assume you’re a value investor looking at GM in late 2015.  Like all good value investors, you want to make decisions based on “intrinsic value” – that is, what a company is worth, not where the stock trades today.  Taped on your wall is Benjamin Graham’s quote, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it’s a weighing machine.”  You think like a business owner, not a trader. You trawl through the financial …

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