High Yield

Smart Money Insights: Weekly Brief Mar 7

It’s been an interesting few weeks, to say the least. Equities have recovered, but gains have been very uneven. Some macroeconomic fears have abated, or at least moved off the front page. In this weekly update, we check in on some of the major themes over the past several weeks, such as the likelihood of a US recession, the next move in central bank policy, whether China will devalue, the likelihood that oil has bottomed, or whether there will be contagion from energy sector high yield bonds. Is the US heading into recession? (update from Feb 22) In the first …

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An Excerpt from the Mid-Month Update

Given the market volatility, we provided a mid-month update to our investors.  The following is a brief commentary on the markets: For purposes of this update, we’ll highlight some ways in which the situation today is very different from 2008: On the positive side, while the Great Financial Crisis nearly pulled down the US financial system, which choked off the real economy, today US banks are less leveraged and have double ($1 trillion) the capital base relative to 2007.  US household leverage is lower as well. Likewise, there likely isn’t systemic risk from trouble in the high yield market, where …

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